Visit of John Kerry USA step by step nears to Georgia
 Tbilisi 11:17 - 08.07.16 «GHN»
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The official visit of the USA State Secretary to Georgia and Ukraine was not held randomly, in two days before the NATO Warsaw meeting. This was not a simple coincidence. All agree but a few are discussing this. And what was the message of the USA diplomatic mission.

In fact if we "translate" this from the diplomatic language this coincidence denotes that the USA has own interests in the region, which may not be quite identical in full with the North Atlantic collective policy. Moreover the circumstances are so strained that the NATO in his military-political capacity cannot implement a concentrated policy in Caucasus. However, other obstacles for this are too - the main is that the historic complex of the German elites is not eliminated yet and many centuries will be spending for its full elimination.

That's why before the NATO summit Georgia visited not German or French Foreign Minister, but USA State Secretary: USA is a global super state. But France and Germany are still regional super states, despite of its influence or economic potential. Washington sends a clear message to every party involved in this case: not only to Russia but as well to Europe, that USA does not feel restrained with the NATO coalition interests, and is ready to cooperate with Georgia on the bilateral (!) basis.

Namely this message in such case most precious and important is . The State Secretary privately signed the memorandum on cooperation in defense with Georgian Prime Minister. Still this is a memorandum only. In other words the declaration on intentions. The similar document was signed on 2010, however the Obama Administration refrain at that time to supply Georgia with the antitank systems. As Obama was playing dangerous games with Moscow and does not wish to deteriorate relations with Russia much more.

Here very important is the context: in USA the Presidential elections are nearing. The Moscow is openly preparing for new aggression against Ukraine. In Syria the parties cannot agree with each other (and will never agree) on its strategic questions. NATO plans to throw new military contingent in Baltic States. This inevitably will be followed by the dislocation of Russian Iskander launchers to Koningsberg (Kaliningrad). These rockets will reach Europe's center without problems, moreover if Putin will make radical steps (this is not excluded) and will break the agreement on the restriction of the "ballistic rockets" of small and medium distance. Formally the Iskander's range of application 500 km and more is in such case this agreement does not apply to. They could be easily modified to 3000 km range of application. And can reach not only Berlin but as well Paris and London.

The USA states that in case if the situation will be strained further, it is ready to act simultaneously in all fields, among them in the South Caucasus. At the same time USA can act out of the NATO format. In fact the USA needs no any "NATO" not before neither now for dislocation of own military bases in Georgia. And for defense of our country. Washington always could make such steps on the basis of the bilateral relations and not to wait a consensus in NATO. This is almost impossible. The Moscow always will try to make its influence via agents to destroy the consensus. Namely this moment is most precious in the Tbilisi memorandum. The USA declared that is ready to act on basis of bilateral relations. And this tactics much more fruitful is for us, than the expectation of the consensus from NATO.

Also important is the fact that Washington made such step at the conflict of Turkey with Russia, that Ankara was to apologize before Russia for Russian plane and killed pilot which violated Turkeys airspace and was bombing Turkey. And afterwards an absolutely paranoid suggestion for passing of aviation base for Russia appeared, that Americans did knew nothing about this.

The visit of John Kerry once more makes clear, that the only scenario that might be accomplished realistically a bilateral dialogue with USA is, and seeking of the security guaranties only in a bilateral format is real. But the continuing aspiration to NATO and the same rhetoric we can use only as a background for successful development of this scenario.

In fact, Georgia will not get much from NATO: to be noted that talks about the MAP and Associated Partnership are not anymore on agenda. Also nothing is heard about the establishing of common marine forces at the Black sea. And the reason the same is: Germany, France, Netherlands as usual are against any steps that may irritate Russia. Rapid steps in a "priority interests' sphere" for Russian Federation are not admissible.

In such case the Georgia is given a historic chance, but not a guaranty, as far as this chance needs diplomatically sharp actions.

The visit showed that USA gradually, step-by-step nears to Georgia. And the Georgian diplomacy needs an appropriate wisdom and accuracy. If the USA will "come" finally, it will stay forever!

GHN

 



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