Mamuka Areshidze: West recommends dialogue with Russia - the negotiations format for such dialogue exist

About respondent

The visit of French Foreign Minister underlined one interesting point. He declared that for resolution of territorial problem, Georgia certainly has to negotiate with Russia. This will be upheld by EU as well. Bernard Kushner, French Foreign Minster took as an example the Poland, Ukraine and USA. He noted that these countries have had balanced the relations with Russia, and made them more civilized. Georgia as well has to change relations with Russia. Mamuka Areshidze, political scientist talked with GHN about possibilities of dialogue with Russia and about the willingness of parties to start negotiations.

- Mr. Mamuka, French Foreign Minister during his visit in Georgia mentioned the word "dialogue" in connection with Russia, unlike the pathos of Hillary Clinton. What can you say about such different position of France?

- In the declaration of Kushner we can read the following accent: in the Russian-Georgian relations the new approaches must be. The same can be said in connection with secessionists. This was not unexpected for me, because the declaration of Saakashvili that he is ready to start dialogue with Russia preceded all these events. By the way, Saakashvili made this declaration after his visit in France and meeting with Sarkozi. Following this I have an impression that some backstage negotiations already were made. And this process, which Kushner now underlined, will start soon. The precondition for this already exists. He was not about making advice; he simply summed up the process. In other words, the negotiations were actually made on this question, and now this declaration was made public.

- After the visit of Saakashvili in Paris, Putin as well arrived there... Accordingly the similar negotiations, lobby interviews had Putin and Sarkozi as well...

- It is possible. I am talking about the cross negotiations, as the negotiation of Sarkozi and Saakashvili only is not enough. It is possible that such lobby interviews or backstage negotiations were made between Russian government and Western leaders.

- In such events, if this is the case, if the same impulse will be as well in the declarations of Russian Federation government representatives, who will estimate the declarations made in Georgia by French Foreign Minister...

- It is for sure. We will see how events will be developed. It is clear that the events will be developed very speedily and dynamically. By the way, almost nobody in Georgia noticed that in fact the new customs system entered into force - Russia- Kazakhstan- Belarus. Thanks to this system for Russia will be very difficult to embargo Georgian wine. Thanks to this system the Georgian wine will easily enter Russian market over Belarus and Kazakhstan. The economic forum is held nowadays in Georgia for Belarus and Georgian official bodies. The situation changed, and it must be used for our advantage.

- How the dialogue between Russia and Georgia may be started if Russian government officials declaring that they are not going to negotiate with the present Georgian government. And Mikhail Saakashvili declares that the dialogue with Russia will be started only after the reoccupation of Georgian territories...

- I think that new realities are present. Today Russia cannot keep the serious pose. Now Russia is more depended upon the West, then it was a month ago. This dependence is stipulated by its grave condition. The 2011-12 yy will be hardest for Russia. Because "Gazprom" and other energy carriers received a serve blow. For instance in 2013 Poland will not need a Russian gas anymore. The RF Budget in its 1/3, oriented for the "Gazprom" and similar organizations will suffer. Demand for Russian gas was decreased by Qatar gas supply for Europe. Nowadays this is not evident, but in the future this will have catastrophic consequences. Russia, having only such type of incomes, faces grave perspectives. So, Russia needs a Western technologies to put own production in normal conditions. This will take years of efforts. Following this, Russia asking West for help with technologies, has to comply with Western demands, as the West in turn will ask for own ends. Because of this the travels in this region are very busy. Now the West and USA after the romantic policy started the real policy, this is evident in the actions of West and USA. Nowadays Russia has no possibility to keep a special position. So, Russia with some conditions will agree with dialogue with Georgia, if the Georgian government will not keep a meaningless pose. West gives the recommendations for dialogue with Russia, as seems the format for such negotiations as well does exist.

- What time is necessary for restoration of Russian-Georgian dialogue?

- This is difficult to predict. I do not think that such period will be too long. This is logical. However some outer circumstances may hinder to this process. It is possible that Azerbaijan and Armenia will start a war. Despite that fact, the visit of Clinton to this region was for prevention of such event.

GHN, Davit Qoqoshvili