GEO / RUS       12+

Merkel or Clinton – occupied Georgia or occupied Moldova

The reoccupation of Georgia will start from Tskhinvali region. The basis for such declaration is processes in Georgia and in the world generally among them the processes in the country-occupant, Russia as well. The civilized world came to understanding that no positive results were achieved from compromises to Russia. Russia made it clear for USA and Europe that the "color" revolutions appeared to be ineffective one. It should be noted as well that in Poland the Russian-inclined president was elected. Now it is meaningless how the USA diplomacy will play the role of a faithful partner saying that US never had had left Georgia and other allies in troubles. However it is a fact that during two years nobody had mentioned the term "occupation". And before the initial occupation nobody listened to the President talking about real dangers. The following two years were not as well distinguished by kindness and attention. It is a fact that White House alongside with the regulation of relations with Russia failed to provide the active support policy for friend countries.

After two years radically different event happen - US State Secretary (in 40 km distance from Russian occupied territory) said that USA never reconcile with the occupation of Georgian territory.

As well Angela Merkel, who frankly speaking played a role in Georgian tragedy, now declares herself as one of the guaranty for Dniester question regulation. However her willingness and ambition to play a positive role in regulation of Dniester question is understandable.

In the world's political circles it is a well known fact (however the Georgian Government never say about it openly) that the reason for not passing the MAP for Georgia on the Bucharest summit was Merklel's folly that caused the occupation of Georgia. The adventurism of Russian Federation against Georgia by occupation of its territories was presupposed by not getting a MAP. In short, at that time Merkel played for Russia and now she demands Russia's actions in turn. Merkel will suggest to Russia the analogue of "Abkhazian scheme of Steinmaier" and in a better case Kishinev will return the part of its lost territories. Probably Russia will have other demands, for instance the Moldavian military neutrality and refusal for integration to Romania. The Dniester problem waits for resolution.
On this background were, the Eastern Europe's countries and Azerbaijan and Armenia are living in a frozen conflict regime, and Georgia having two occupied territories ruled by Kremlin, the visit of Hillary Clinton to these countries is a very meaningful fact. Moreover the European diplomatic machinery started to move, the movement still is invisible from outside but it does exist.

Vlad Filat, Prime Minister of Moldova said when answering a question of GHN about Dniester problem resolution: "We are expecting a considerable increase of activity from international community in the existing format. We hope German Chancellor's position in this question will definitely promote to resolve the question. Namely on her meeting with Russian government officials this problem was a main question."

Many interesting questions were discussed with Vlad Filat, but most interesting was that not only PM but as well ordinary people have a special disposition towards the occupied territory. In our country the Russian army was under peacekeepers mandate before 2008 in Abkhazia and S.O. And the Dniester was occupied by well known General Lebed's 14-th Army. This happen at the border with Europe and at that time the "Old Europe" even did not noticed this fact.

Moldavian elite people, close to governmental circles said that in 2008 Georgia suffered hugely from Russian Federation's anger which was directed as well against Moldova. It was a barbaric act, which frightened and woke up Europe and we "have seen many things in a different angle."

It is clear for all world that for the avoidance of a range of dangers and generally the good relations of Kremlin and White House is of advantage. This point is clear for Georgia as well. President Saakshvili said: "We welcome the dialogue between Russia and USA; we welcome the direction taken by President Obama for dialogue with Russia. And we welcome that in a frame of this dialogue USA remains in its principal positions and is based on values which it has. This is a presupposition that this dialogue will bring to all of us the desirable results, among them for 500 thousand our citizens who cannot return to its homes."

As well it is clear for all world that USA tries to make close relations with country which has a status defined by the international law - "Occupant Country". Eventually all improvements and deepening of relations will lead inwardly the USA to the position of supporter of this status, if the agreement concerning this question will not be made. In the long term vision, in the historic perspective Washington may became a supporter of Kremlin, but this is not in the interests of USA. However we should not forget that diplomacy is not Yes or No. Either it is not a declaration which is made publicly before the meeting. Accordingly, we have to think the matter over, when the Kremlin and White House are declaring that they disagree in Georgian question, alongside with this the State Secretary makes a declaration that USA cannot reconcile with the occupation of Georgia. And one of the authors of "Georgian tragedy" - Russian PM - Vladimir Putin is not criticizing directly State Secretary, but advises us to "look for ways" towards each other.

"This is a subject of a dialogue of two people - Georgians and S.O., "- Putin said. Indeed, the Georgian government even before 2008 demanded constantly to exclude from the negotiations process all parties except of international organizations, all parties who played not only a role of mediator in S.O. and Abkhazia, but as well put a considerable amount of money in the reconstruction of the region. This appears to be unacceptable for Russia at that time. Moreover, Putin is a person who most likely is not to be trusted. Several years ago he has a chance to become a hero for Georgian people, but contrary, thanks his policy these two countries appeared in such terrible situation.

Who will be a hero for Moldova, whose monument will be constructed in Moldova, if any? It is not known. But Moldova government is going to implement serious projects in Dniester.

"We annulled some limitations for the local government, now they have the possibility to move freely. We are starting the implementation of important social projects and we are doing this not for the Dniester government officials but for our people. However we are realistic, for the given situation we cannot reach the absolute maximum, but it is important that the process started. We hope that the results will come up soon, "- Moldavian PM said to GHN.

Georgian government already approved the governmental strategic action plan for occupied territories, and it is in the first phase of its implementation.

"According to the plan it is possible that the living conditions for Abkhazian and S.O. population will be improved. Many initiatives are to be implemented in educational area. Meetings of members of mixed families, colleagues and neighbors are planned. Attending of Churches and tombs is planned; transportation of corpses of died soldiers, creation economic relations, infrastructure and transportation connections are to be made. Existing trade relations will be promoted by the low price and high speed internet connection, "- Temur Iakobashvili, State Minister declares.

In politics nothing happens accidentally, everything is based upon the strong regularity. We should think that "something will happen" and this maybe connected with the future of S.O. More over according to the declaration of Philippe Gordon, Aide of US State Secretary, "it is well known that USA and Russia disagree in Georgian question, namely in question of Abkhazia and S.O. What about the direct dialogue with Abkhazia and S.O., we believe that it must be restored."

In short, in the question of restoration of dialogue Russia and USA have identical position. And this is regardless of sincerity of declarations of Russian Prime Minister.

However in Moldavia it is well known that regulation of Dniester question will not be easy one, and hey have to sacrifice something in turn. They know well what namely is to be sacrificed, but nobody talks about this aloud. And I will l keep the silence as well.

If we wish to return our occupied territories we have to "sacrifice" something for this as well. This may became an acceptance of Russian military bases in Georgia, or a payment of compensation for Kremlin for its withdrawal. It may be a refusal for integration in EU bodies, what is hard to imagine nowadays. And maybe the recognition of Abkhazian independence in the frames of Steinmaier - in the conditions of dividing of Abkhazia. This will be those main questions upon which Moscow will demand compromises from Tbilisi.

What will be compromised by Georgia it is not known yet, however, it will be an absolute imprudence to talk that we "will not compromise".

The changes began. Now we will watch the development of events - who will be first - Merkel or Clinton, Europe or USA. Which one will appear to be weightier for Russia in the given context? - The occupied Dniester, or Georgian occupied territories. What will be more acceptable for Kremlin - the permanent status of Occupant Country" or the complete membership of international community.

GHN, Gocha Mirtskhulava