Misha [Saakashvili] and UNM were considering the 2012 elections in the same view. As far as they loose elections and moved to the opposition and some of them were imprisoned; the 2016 Parliamentary elections and a quantity of MP sits in Parliament are not as decisive, as would be. The opposition is the opposition: more for five votes of less for five votes this a minor detail is only.

In other words for the National Movement the winning of elections and returning to the power a biggest bonus will be but, in case of losing the elections and decreasing of the parliamentary fraction will not appear as a catastrophe. The main target point for UNM are the 2010 elections. At this moment the majoritarian system will be abolished and ballot will be conducted only with the elections list.

Unlike them the GD-DG takes the 2016 elections as a last fight. In contrary the wining for them and taking for ten MP sits more does not makes a big difference. In turn, the loose of elections will be a total catastrophe. In such case they will replace Nationals in prisons.

The government assumes that the exercising of the power its logic has. Namely this logic inspired the UNM to the "TV-aired arrests" in 2004-2005 years. They will repeat the same according to the same logic - how to come into the power. Moreover this government too was not far from the selective justice.

The leaders of the GD-DG are well aware of this, this a reason is why are they so terrified. The aggression towards the journalists and threatening against them is an outcome of this fear. We can name many samples of such attitude in Georgian political and media sphere.

John Kerry's mission

The West carefully watched a development of events and warns the government to refrain from abuse of power. The unnamed sources informed GHN, that the forthcoming elections and fate of broadcaster Rustavi2 has became a main reason of John Kerry's visit to Tbilisi.

Nonetheless, this was not mentioned openly at the press conference, but behind the closed doors Kerry warned the government, the Washington in no case will tolerate in a preelections period any restrictive measures on free media in no reasons; would it be a Court decision, or a change of opposition TV Company's owners. The Washington knows that Khalvashi did not pay even a cent out his own funds for the company and his claims in a court immoral is, as well it is politically biased.

The US State Secretary diplomatically warned Ivanishvili, but at the same time very strongly. And this was not aired nowhere in media. Probably when they meet, they agreed to keep the meeting's insides closed for media. And if such pressure will happen the West puts under the question elections results. This unavoidably will be followed by a huge protest wave in Georgia.

Despite of this danger the influential forces at Ivanishvili's surrounding are trying to persuade informal leader of the GD-DG, if this summer before the end of seaside season the owner of Rustavi 2 will not be changed (and this broadcaster will remain as it is), in such case Misha will return. But they are not realizing that Misha without doubt will stay at Georgia's border, in October 9 or 10, despite of any outcome in elections.

But Sakashvili in one of his interviews openly threatened Georgian tycoon that he will revenge. Seems like Ivanishvili has nothing in Georgia, and all his capitals abroad are in the West. In fact here too he has much to lose, in total around USD 1 milliard. Only his glass palace costs USD 250 million. So, Ivanishvili has much to lose in his homeland. And he knows this well. His words only rhetoric is ("if you will not vote for me I will go and you will miss me much"). But in fact, Bidzina is not going to go anywhere without fighting for the power.

Fight for opposition TV companies

Now, the key question a problems of Rustavi 2 is. Now the government and the opposition are waiting for decisions held by of Supreme Court and Constitutional Court. And most likely the television will be handed to Kibar Kalvashi. In this court trial Davit Dvali and Akimidze are taking part too, but only on a basis of verbal agreement with Kibar Kalvashvili. But what price has a verbal agreement in our country, this is well known for everybody. At the same time the two former founders (after Erosi Kitsmarishvili's ‘suicide') of the company are necessary for some entourage for getting a hue of legitimacy of this trial and for making an excuse of the happening around Rustavi2; in case if the opposition and democratic forces will make steps, after the Court decision, for defending the broadcaster. The scenario is already ready. The former prisoners of conscience will pay back to these people and a case may lead even to the bloodshed. "The fighting force" will be a group that was formed at the protest actions of 2009. In any case, any victims of this bloodshed, will be a burden of guilt of Nationals. As a result people will became more intolerable towards them. The USA's special services know everything about this scenario. That's why Kerry was ordered to make actions in connection with Georgia. And the most problematic task for USA envoy to Georgia is to sooth confronting parties.

At the same time, the government has no ways back. In any case the radical forces, in Ivanishvili's surrounding are persuading him, that return of Sakashvili is a catastrophic but a real scenario, and processes are to be under the control. The USA and West must quit these processes. One example for this, at least a protest action at the USA embassy is. According to the logic, if anybody wished to conduct protest actions against Saakshvili, the protests would be conducted at Justice Ministry or at the State Administration (Cancelaria). But the radical ideology wing of the GD-DG is considering, it is necessary to make the identification of USA with the UNM for spreading of a hatred among population. This considers fully with the Russian scenario too. In short for the GD-DG the main is to retain a power at any cost (they are able to do everything for this).

Shevardnadze's dinosaurs

For retaining the power government exploits all resources. Among them are the "dinosaurs from Citizen's Union" - the cadres cherished by Eduard Shevardnadze, Nugzar Shevardnadze, Vazha Lortkipanidze and Niko Lekishvili. At the same time to the scenario several new generation's businessmen are included who have a big influence on a government and business circles.

When the courts will deliver a judgment, it will be clear, if this bloody scenario will be finally approved. However, whatsoever the outcome of the happening, only government has a burden of guilt, but not the opposition. This a rule of the Politics is: the power is not only rights, but a responsibility too. The politicians may deny many facts, but they have to know, everything about its plans is known. And we are staying now at the verge.

GHN
Gocha Mirtskhulava