For the first time after the accomplishment of 1992-1994 yy war, the term frozen is not appropriate for the conflict around Nagorno-Karabakh. The number of clashes increased on the borderlines so much that new war is quite predictable, GHN reports.
"The Karabakh government is not recognized by international community and it is under the Armenian patronage. President Bako Saakiano visited Paris, but he was refused for official reception. Baku still considers this territory as inalienable part of Azerbaijan. Baku recently declared about intention to restore it over the force. Both sides of the virtual border are prevailed by war rhetoric, accompanied by armament.
The mediation Minsk Group of OSCE consisting of France, Russia and USA are not able to find a political solution, - LeFigaro wrote.
Richard Giragosian, Director of Armenia Center of International Research said one of the possible scenarios of development would be the overgrowing of the "accidental" clash at the border line into the large war during all 2012. The International Crisis Group prognoses that ‘the regional consequences for such war will be catastrophic". Iran may be drugged into the conflict as well Turkey and Russia is afraid of blast in Caucasus. Moscow keeping good relations with both, Armenia and Baku, makes every effort on diplomatic arena to return the regional influence which it had had in Soviet period. Still efforts are not sufficient for prolongation of existing status quo.
