A New York Times article ruminating about a possible deal between the US and Russia over the Ukraine and Iran has garnered media attention. But DW's says Michael Knigge, it is long on speculation and short on facts, reports GHN based on DW.
Influential columnist Roger Cohen expounded on a possible quid-pro-quo between Washington and Moscow over the future of Ukraine and a nuclear agreement with Iran. Obama, so goes the argument, might be considering "selling out" Ukraine to Russia in exchange for the Kremlin's support for a nuclear deal with Iran.
Cohen presents no factual evidence for his theory or how this deal might transpire. He explicitly writes that he is "not suggesting there is any such formal Iran-Ukraine trade-off between the Obama administration and Putin." Instead he simply declares: "The abrupt flaring of new fighting in eastern Ukraine, and the abrupt Russian readiness to help on Iran ahead of the Nov. 24 deadline for nuclear talks, are not a mere coincidence."
This assumption - that the latest round of violence in Ukraine and Moscow's alleged sudden willingness to help on a nuclear deal happened at the same time - leads Cohen to the conclusion that they are connected.
While it's impossible to disprove speculation as it is by definition not based on facts, it helps to add some context.
First, Cohen's description of an "abrupt flaring of new fighting" in Ukraine makes it seem that the ceasefire agreed to in Minsk in September had been holding and the situation was calm. It was not. Fighting had continued with varied intensity despite the Minsk agreement.
Second, it's true that Russian officials earlier this year warned the West that Moscow could change its position on a nuclear deal with Iran to up the pressure against Western sanctions against Russia over Ukraine. But it's also true that while Moscow has a complex relationship with Iran, a nuclear armed Islamic country in Russia's broader vicinity is simply not in the Kremlin's interest. What's more, Russia would profit economically from converting Iranian uranium as proposed during the negotiations recently.